Uncertainty is, of course, not a new feature of our lives. What is new is how often and how quickly the environment in which we make decisions changes. The rapid development of artificial intelligence, technological transformation, economic fluctuations, and changes in the nature of work require people to adapt to new conditions on a regular basis. According to the World Economic Forum’s Future of Jobs Report 2025, employers predict that 39% of the core skills required for occupations will change by 2030. This is, of course, not an unequivocal fact about any one person’s future, but a forecast based on a survey of employers; nevertheless, it outlines the changes ahead.
In these circumstances, it is becoming important not only to acquire new knowledge, but also to be able to act and make decisions amid the total uncertainty of the future. In psychology, this issue is often discussed within the framework of the concept of intolerance of uncertainty (Intolerance of Uncertainty). It is useful to view it not only as a personality trait, but also as an interconnected tendency involving thoughts, emotions, and behaviour, which can vary in strength across situations and change through experience and effort. This topic has been relevant since the 1970s and continues to be actively studied and applied in the psychotherapy of anxiety and anxiety disorders (Begoyan, 2020).
Uncertainty as a Threat
Uncertainty is not simply a lack or absence of information. At times, the brain perceives it as an inability to prepare for potential threats: when you do not know when or what kind of danger you may face, you also do not know how to prepare for it. In such situations, people often try to predict every possible negative outcome, check them repeatedly, seek reassurance about their safety, postpone actions, or avoid situations in which outcomes cannot be controlled. As a result, anxiety may temporarily decrease, while the brain reinforces the mistaken or irrational idea that uncertainty must first be eliminated in order to act safely and feel protected.
In the context of Bayesian modelling, this process is described as the integration of prior beliefs and new data. We do not perceive the world from scratch: we interpret new information through the lens of past experience, expectations, and the context of the current situation. When trying to eliminate uncertainty becomes a constant requirement, checking, reassurance seeking, and excessive control may provide short-term relief from anxiety while reinforcing the belief that control is necessary (Begoyan, 6 October 2026).
Tolerating Does Not Mean Giving Up
Tolerance of uncertainty does not mean being indifferent, giving up planning, or failing to take reasonable steps to reduce risk. If a problem can be solved and is within our sphere of influence, we should gather the necessary information, weigh the options, and act. Yet once we have made a decision, we cannot guarantee all of its consequences. At that point, our task changes: instead of trying to eliminate uncertainty at any cost, we accept that some of it lies beyond our control and continue moving towards our important goals and values.
We can ask ourselves: What is within my sphere of influence right now, and what is the next useful step? Then we take that step, recognising that the outcome may differ from our expectations to some degree – or even substantially. “Do what you can, and let things happen as they will” is not a call to inaction. It distinguishes responsible action from the impossible demand for complete control.
In cognitive behavioural therapy, this capacity can be developed by reviewing anxiety-provoking predictions, noticing safety behaviours, conducting small behavioural experiments, and gradually reducing avoidance of situations that involve uncertainty. A behavioural experiment is a method for testing one’s assumptions, beliefs, and predictions in real-life conditions. Its purpose is not to prove that nothing bad will ever happen, but to find out whether our prediction is as likely and inevitable as it seems (Begoyan, 2020, pp. 236–242). The aim is to learn through experience that it is possible to feel anxious, lack 100% guarantees of safety, and still act. This process, most often called exposure, can be described as follows: a person has a prediction; reality provides new data; and if that data is perceived and interpreted adequately, it may change the next prediction. The success of exposure is measured not only by how much anxiety decreases, but also by whether the prediction about danger has changed (Begoyan, 20 October 2026).
Regularly Reviewing Goals and Beliefs
In a rapidly changing environment, tolerating uncertainty alone is not enough. We also need to check regularly whether our goals, expectations, and core beliefs still correspond to reality.
Reviewing our goals does not mean giving up what matters whenever circumstances change. It is important to distinguish between a value – the thing we want to remain committed to – and a strategy – the path we take to pursue it. For example, professional development may remain an important value, while the skill, work format, or timeline chosen to pursue it may need to be reconsidered. Flexibility in relation to goals allows us to change our steps without losing sight of what matters to us.
The same applies to our core beliefs. If a person believes, “I need to know everything in advance; otherwise I cannot make the right decision,” that belief may hinder learning and action under new conditions. It can be reconsidered by asking: What evidence supports this belief? What does it help me with, and what does it get in the way of? What more flexible formulation might help me? For example, “I must be completely certain” could be replaced with this working belief: “I can make a decision with the information available and revise it later if necessary.”
We should also take into account the ways exposure and giving up safety behaviours can update beliefs. When a new positive experience is attributed only to our safety behaviours, it may fail to change the old belief. But when we compare the prediction with the actual outcome and notice what we have learned, we can revise our beliefs more accurately. Thus, review concerns not only future goals, but also the beliefs through which we interpret new experiences (Begoyan, 3 November 2026).
Regular review should not turn into daily self-scrutiny that adds new demands day after day. The purpose of reviewing goals and beliefs is to assess whether the environment and the external world have changed, and to check whether our current plans and tools still serve their purpose. As the pace of change accelerates, the intervals between reviews may also become shorter, but there is no need to keep changing every goal and belief. We should retain what continues to work and update what no longer fits the situation.
A Flexible Attitude Towards Uncertainty
Our ability to eliminate uncertainty is limited, but we can become more flexible in how we respond to it. This flexibility involves several interconnected capacities: distinguishing what we can and cannot control, tolerating uncomfortable feelings or distress, testing catastrophic predictions, acting without 100% guarantees of safety, and periodically reviewing our goals and beliefs.
In this sense, tolerance of uncertainty is not only a therapeutic goal associated with anxiety disorders; it is also a personal quality and an important capacity for adapting. It does not promise that the future will be safe or predictable. It helps us avoid waiting for the future to become completely clear before we begin to live, choose, and act.
References
- Begoyan, A. N. (2020). Տագնապամարիչ․ տագնապային խանգարումների հաղթահարման ուղեցույց [Anxiolytic: A Guide to Overcoming Anxiety Disorders]. Yerevan: Hilfmann Press, 368 pp.
- Begoyan, A. N. (6 October 2026). The Brain as a “Bayesian Machine”: Uncertainty, Prediction, and the Illusion of Control.
- Begoyan, A. N. (20 October 2026). Exposure as Bayesian Learning: How New Experience Changes the Brain’s Predictions of Danger.
- Begoyan, A. N. (3 November 2026). The Invisible Obstacles to Exposure: Attention, Covert Safety Behaviors, and Reassurance Seeking.
- World Economic Forum. (2025). The Future of Jobs Report 2025: Skills Outlook.