I have just published my new book, The Predictive Intelligence: How Brains, Leaders, and Teams Navigate Uncertainty.
The book emerged at the crossroads of neuroscience, psychology, organizational psychology, artificial intelligence, uncertainty, and adaptation. Its central question is simple but increasingly important: How do people, leaders, and organizations make decisions when they cannot know enough?
Human beings constantly build models of reality, generate expectations, act on incomplete information, and revise their beliefs when the world behaves differently from what they predicted. Leaders do the same professionally. Organizations institutionalize these processes through strategies, forecasts, routines, incentives, and decision systems. Today, artificial intelligence is becoming part of this predictive architecture.
The book explores predictive processing and prediction error, expertise and cognitive bias, uncertainty and executive judgment, human–AI collaboration, AI dependency and overtrust, psychological safety, organizational learning, and the development of adaptive organizations.
One of the central ideas of the book is that intelligence is not simply the ability to make accurate predictions. Predictive intelligence is the ability to build useful models, recognize uncertainty, notice when those models are failing, and update them without losing the capacity to act.
The final chapters move from individual cognition toward organizational adaptation and introduce practical approaches for improving judgment, preserving human responsibility in AI-supported decision-making, and transforming prediction errors into learning.
The book is available to download free of charge.
Free PDF: Download The Predictive Intelligence
Citation: Begoyan, A.N. (2026). The Predictive Intelligence: How Brains, Leaders, and Teams Navigate Uncertainty. Hilfmann Press, 2026